Decryption of the 19th ASEAN-India summit

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India hosted the 19th summit to commemorate the 30th anniversary of ASEAN-India dialogue relations on November 12, 2022 in Phnom Penh, in Cambodia. This year’s summit is remarkable in three respects.
First, the relationship is now elevated to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). Ten years ago, the 2012 Memorial Summit endorsed the India-ASEAN Strategic Partnership (SP). Ten years later, the relationship is now upgraded to CSP. ASEAN signed the CSP with China and Australia last year. ASEAN and India released a joint statement outlining what the CSP offers. If we compare the two documents, the one issued in 2012 and the one from 2022, there is not much difference in approach. The 2012 strategic elevation was guided by 26 points, while the 2022 CSP is 24 points. Given the ongoing geopolitical development, this CSP is going to play a major role in guiding relations, provided that the people who help it nurture it with passion. ASEAN and India are linked by their common history and culture, and therefore relations with ASEAN continue to be the cornerstone of India’s foreign policy. There is no turning back.
Secondly, for the first time, the Indian delegation was led by the vice-president, which was a good decision. ASEAN summits do not need high-level political participation. Several high-level political leaders attended. Indeed, many of them are on tour in Asia to attend: COP27, the Asean Plus summit, APEC and the G20. One flight, four stops!
Third, the Indo-Pacific has taken center stage. ASEAN released the Leaders’ Statement on integrating four priority areas of the ASEAN perspective on the Indo-Pacific into ASEAN-led mechanisms. It is nothing but to clearly recognize the Indo-Pacific as a moving forward reality. India’s strategic position in the Indian Ocean and its membership of the IPEF make it an essential economic power. ASEAN, on the other hand, appreciated India’s support for ASEAN’s centrality in the evolving regional architecture and its continued contribution to regional peace, security and prosperity as well as to ASEAN integration and the process of building the ASEAN community.
Both Asean and India have been reeling from post-pandemic complications of Covid-19. Coupled with several global uncertainties, the post-pandemic challenges for Asean and India continue to take their toll. All face medium to heavy economic downsides. There remains a significant degree of uncertainty about the severity and duration of the global outbreak and the trajectory of the global economy. With the changing global economic landscape, ASEAN and India need to work more closely to explore new sources of growth and prosperity. Although the CSP is not a document indicating a path to prosperity, the strategic objectives must be matched with the economy. Without stronger economic commitments, strategic relationships do not last long.
Following the agenda requires serious effort. First, ASEAN and India need to strengthen their trade and investment relationship. Since the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on goods between ASEAN and India in 2010, trade between them has almost doubled to over $87 billion in 2019-20 , then declined to $79 billion in 2020-21 due to a slowdown due to the pandemic. Driven by imports, India’s trade with ASEAN has grown faster than India’s trade with the world. India faces significant non-tariff barriers in ASEAN which also limit its exports with ASEAN. Although India and Asean trade growth has weakened in recent months due to the Covid-19 pandemic and trade policy uncertainties, there is still untapped potential to further boost Asean-India trade. . Harmonization of standards and regulations, mutual recognition of conformity assessment and reduction of border procedures are important to facilitate preferential market access between ASEAN and India. Upgrading the ASEAN-India FTA (AIFTA) and its effective use could perhaps provide the necessary impetus to bilateral trade flows while promoting sustainable and inclusive growth for ASEAN and India.
India’s trade with ASEAN
2010-11 (in billions of dollars) |
2021-22 (in billions of dollars) |
Growth (2010-11 to 2021-22) (%) |
|
Export |
25.63 |
42.33 |
5.15 |
Import |
30.61 |
68.07 |
8.32 |
Trade balance |
-4.98 |
-25.75 |
17.85 |
Note: * compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
Source: Author’s calculations based on Export-Import Database, Department of Commerce, India
Second, the development of market-oriented production networks is another great opportunity to scale up engagement between Asia and India. The pandemic has disrupted supply chain networks and the sourcing of intermediate inputs and final products across the world has been disproportionately mistrusted. Current engagement in value chains between ASEAN and India is not substantial. Some of the promising sectors in the value chains between ASEAN and India are electrical equipment, industrial machinery, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, power generation machinery and telecommunications. ASEAN and India can take advantage of the emerging scenario and support each other to build resilient new supply chains. However, to explore this opportunity, ASEAN and India need to upgrade skills, improve logistics services and strengthen transport infrastructure.
Third, investment reform is another challenge for India and ASEAN. To face such a challenge, especially in this time of pandemic, ASEAN and India should cooperate to design appropriate policies, simplify investment regimes and streamline investment processes to further strengthen the chain. of value and investment links. Trade and economic cooperation between India and ASEAN in areas of mutual interest such as financial technology (FinTech), connectivity, start-ups and innovation, youth and women empowerment and the development of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) is an important driver for raising ASEAN-India relations to a higher level.
Fourth, the CSP joint statement has expanded the space for connectivity. For India, “Connecting Connectivity” can work well if and only if the overall architecture is benign and serves as a basis for regional infrastructure cooperation. We must not forget our North East when we talk about connectivity with ASEAN. Somehow, the CSP joint statement missed the significance of the Northeast.
Fifthly, we agree that socio-cultural issues in ASEAN-India relations are of particular importance. The 10 states of Asean are merely cultural replicas of 29 Indian states and union territories. Our cultural approach to ASEAN must be inclusive and broad.
In conclusion, a stronger ASEAN-India partnership would strengthen multilateralism, which currently faces a great challenge of survival. Moving from SP to CSP, tackling regional challenges and appropriate solutions together, leaving aside narrow differences, is what we need and what we must respect.