Up to 25,000 more people than usual could die over the next 20 years in England as a result of heavy drinking habits that started during the Covid lockdowns, two studies have found. They could also lead to almost a million additional hospital admissions and cost the NHS over £5billion.

The NHS-funded findings have prompted new calls from health experts for more determined government action to reduce alcohol-related harm by tackling its price, availability and promotion.

People who were already moderate drinkers when the UK entered its first lockdown in March 2020 generally reduced their alcohol consumption while government-imposed restrictions on social mixing were in place. However, many of those who were already heavy drinkers were drinking even more at a time when pubs, restaurants and other places selling alcohol were closed, leading to a sudden increase in the number of deaths.

Both studies analyzed the potential long-term impact of binge drinking. One, by academics at the University of Sheffield, revealed that in a worst-case scenario – in which these people continue to drink at high levels of Covid – around 25,192 additional deaths could occur, along with 972,382 admissions in hospital and a £5.2bn cost to the NHS by 2042. It was based on modeling 45 different alcohol-related health conditions.

The other, by the Institute of Alcohol Studies (IAS), gave more conservative results. The IAS, working with Lumen Health, found that, again in the worst-case scenario, England could see 9,914 more premature deaths and 147,892 more cases of seriously ill people with nine alcohol-related conditions, including breast cancer, cirrhosis of the liver and hyperglycemia. arterial pressure.

“These figures underscore that the impact of the pandemic on our drinking is likely to cast a shadow over our health and paint a worrying picture at a time when NHS services are already under huge strain due to backlogs. treatment,” said Colin Angus, a senior researcher at Sheffield who led his study.

Sadie Boniface, head of research at the IAS, said: “Changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic have led to a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020, and the worrying trends are continuing.

“Our study predicts that if alcohol consumption remains at current levels… inequalities in alcohol-related deaths will also increase more than they already are. The results of the studies should be a wake-up call for action.

Alcohol caused 10,700 deaths and 640,000 hospitalizations in England, and cost the NHS £2.7billion to treat it, in 2019, the year before Covid hit.

Elinor Jayne, director of Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, said: “It is extremely alarming to see the predicted devastating scenarios of increased alcohol harm in England, in particular the predicted increase in premature deaths and the widening of existing health inequalities.”

Scotland, where alcohol-related deaths rose by 17% in 2020, has seen an increase in drinking alone and at home during lockdowns. “It is likely that those who were already drinking at dangerous levels before the pandemic increased their drinking rates,” she added.

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care declined to comment directly on the results. They said simply, “Alcohol abuse can ruin lives and destroy families, and we are committed to supporting those most at risk.

“It is misleading to say that the UK has no strategy to deal with alcohol harm. We published a 10-year plan to tackle drug and alcohol-related harms in 2022, backed by new funding of £532m over three years to rebuild abuse treatment and recovery services of drugs and alcohol in England, as well as to increase the availability of inpatient drug treatment beds.”